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Kurzweil Predictions: The Singularity is Near

By RD Bentley on May 5, 2013 in ,

Information technology grows exponentially.

Ray Kurzweil, director of engineering at Google, has spoken about Google Glass and technology of the future. This guy is really out there, especially when he speaks of technology beyond Google Glass. Kurzweil has said that a Google brain chip could be a possibility by the year of 2030, or sometime in that decade.

In his book, The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Ray Kurzweil makes some troubling  predictions.

The Age of Intelligent Machines (1990)

2020–2050

“By 2020, there will be a new World government.”

The Singularity is Near (September 26, 2006)

2015

  • By now, it is likely that “clean a house” will be within the capabilities of a household robot.

    • 2018

  • 1013 bits (=10 TB) of computer memory—roughly the equivalent of the memory space in a single human brain—will cost $1000.

    • 2020s

  • The decade in which “Bridge Three”, the revolution in Nanotechnology, is to begin: allowing humans to vastly overcome the inherent limitations of biology, as no matter how much we fine-tune our biology, we will never be as capable otherwise.
  • Early in this decade, we will have the requisite hardware to emulate human intelligence within a $1000 personal computer, followed shortly by effective software models of human intelligence toward the middle of the decade.
  • Computers less than 100 nm in size will be possible.
  • As one of their first practical applications, nanomachines are used for medical purposes.
  • Highly advanced medical nanobots will perform detailed brainscans on live patients.
  • Accurate computer simulations of the entire human brain will exist due to these hyperaccurate brainscans, and the workings of the brain will be understood.
  • Nanobots capable of entering the bloodstream to “feed” cells and extract waste will exist (though not necessarily be in wide use) by the end of this decade. They will make the normal mode of human food consumption obsolete.
  • By the late 2020s, nanotech-based manufacturing will be in widespread use, radically altering the economy as all sorts of products can suddenly be produced for a fraction of their traditional-manufacture costs. The true cost of any product is now the amount it takes to download the design schematics.
  • By the later part of this decade, virtual reality will be so high-quality that it will be indistinguishable from real reality.
  • The threat posed by genetically engineered pathogens permanently dissipates by the end of this decade as medical nanobots—infinitely more durable, intelligent and capable than any microorganism—become sufficiently advanced.
  • The many variations of “Human Body 2.0″ (as Kurzweil calls it) are incrementally accumulated into this and the following decade, with each organ and body system having its own course of refinement and development. It ultimately consists of a nanotechnological system of nourishment and circulation, obsolescing many internal organs, brain-extension and an improved skeleton.

    • 2023

  • 1016 calculations per second—roughly the equivalent of one human brain—will cost $1,000.

    • 2025

  • Some military UAVs and land vehicles will be 100% computer-controlled.

    • 2030s

  • Mind uploading becomes successful and perfected by the end of this decade as humans become software-based: living out on the Web, projecting bodies whenever they want or need (whether in virtual or real reality), and living indefinitely so long as they maintain their “mind file”.
  • Using brain nanobots, recorded or real-time brain transmissions of a person’s daily life known as “experience beamers” will be available for other people to remotely experience. This is very similar to how the characters in Being John Malkovich were able to enter the mind of Malkovich and see the world through his eyes.
  • The many variations of “Human Body 3.0″ are gradually implemented during this and the following decade; It mostly likely lacks a fixed, corporeal form and can alter its shape and external appearance at will via foglet-like nanotechnology.
  • Nanomachines could be directly inserted into the brain and could interact with brain cells to totally control incoming and outgoing signals.

    • 2040s

  • People spend most of their time in full-immersion virtual reality (Kurzweil has cited The Matrix as a good example of what the advanced virtual worlds will be like, without the dystopian twist).
  • Foglets are in use.
  • Nonbiological intelligence will be billions of times more capable than biological intelligence.

    • 2045: The Singularity

  • The Singularity is an extremely disruptive, world-altering event that forever changes the course of human history. The extermination of humanity by violent machines is unlikely (though not impossible) because sharp distinctions between man and machine will no longer exist thanks to the existence of cybernetically enhanced humans and uploaded humans.
  • The technological singularity occurs as artificial intelligences surpass human beings as the smartest and most capable life forms on the Earth.
  • 1000 buys a computer a billion times more intelligent than every human combined. This means that average and even low-end computers are vastly smarter than even highly intelligent, unenhanced humans.

    • Source: Predictions made by Ray Kurzweil.

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